Weather forecasters are keeping a close eye on Tropical Storm Hermine, which may bring heavy rains, strong winds and coastal flooding to Eastern Suffolk County this Labor Day weekend.
It’s a “challenging forecast,” the National Weather Service says, because of conflicting predictions by computer models. Some models predict the storm will remain stationery for an extended period over the east coast of North Carolina, which could bring a prolonged period of coastal flooding to Long Island. Other models have the storm moving on a northeast trajectory more quickly. The track it takes, as well as its intensity, will determine how much rain falls here and how strong Hermine’s winds will be.
The forecast — for now — calls for winds to increase late Saturday into Saturday night,with sustained winds out of the northeast at 25-30 mph and gusts 35 to 40 mph possible. Winds should diminish Sunday night as the storm begins to push away from the area.
“Again, there is a great deal of uncertainty with the storm,” according to the forecast discussion. “A track closer to the coast would mean higher winds, and a track farther out to sea would mean weaker winds. Based on the 4 a.m. advisory for Hermine, there is a 10- to 20-percent chance of seeing tropical storm force winds for much of the area.”
Rainfall is also uncertain with this storm, the weather service said.
“Despite the close proximity, the only areas that may see heavy rainfall may be the Twin Forks of Long Island, as they will be closer to the low than the rest of the area,” according to the forecast.
Tropical Storm Hermine is expected to make landfall across the Florida panhandle as a category one hurricane early Friday morning and move up the southeast coast through the day on Saturday.
