(Updated: 11 a.m.) A tropical storm warning has been extended northward from Sandy Hook, New Jersey to Watch Hill Long Island, including Long Island and New York City as Hermine strengthens over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and tracks slowly to the northeast. The warning extension is effective as of 11 a.m.
The storm will reintensify as its center lingers over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, according to the National Weather Service, but it is not expected to bring sustained tropical storm-force winds to our area as it passes southeast of Long Island Sunday through Thursday.
Storm surge and erosion impacts are the biggest local concerns from Hermine, forecasters say. Surge will build to between two and four feet across eastern Long Island Sound and Peconic and Gardiners Bays Sunday and Monday.
Multiple cycles of moderate to major coastal flooding are expected Sunday into midweek. If the high end of the surge ranges is realized, there will be widespread major coastal flooding, according to the National Weather Service in Upton.
“Thiworst-casese scenario would result in a life-threatening three- to four-feet of inundation above ground across some low-lying coastal locales,” the weather service said in a statement.
On the ocean, surf is expected to build from 10 to 15 feet on Sunday and continue into early next week. Combined with the storm tide, it will result in severe dune erosion and washovers, the weather service said.
There is a high risk of dangerous rip currents at Atlantic ocean beaches today through the middle of next week.
The center of the storm will track slowly toward Long Island, but never quite reach it, instead moving slowly to the southeast through midweek.
Hermine could bring moderate to locally heavy rainfall to Long Island and NYC from Sunday night into at least Monday night and possibly into Tuesday, according to the forecast, which currently calls for up to 1 1/2 inches of rain across the tri-state area from Sunday into Wednesday, with the highest amounts across the twin forks. Locally higher amounts are possible, the weather service said.
The current forecast for our area from the National Weather Service:
Tomorrow, expect northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph in the afternoon, with a 30 percent chance of rain.
Tropical storm conditions are possible tomorrow night, with winds from the east at 35 to 40 mph and gusts up to 55 mph and a 60 percent chance of rain.
Tropical storm conditions are possible Monday through Wednesday next week.
“Uncertainty in the track, timing and intensity of this system still exists,” the weather service said. “…[T]his is a fluid situation. Changes to the forecast are possible.”
SoutholdLOCAL will keep you updated with the latest National Weather Service forecasts, local storm preparation plans and alerts, plus complete coverage of Hermine’s local impacts.
